The Technical Setup

ARB is testing a critical support zone at 0.09 USD on the 4-hour chart. The technicals are showing a textbook oversold scenario: RSI at 41.04, MACD histogram printing negative at -0.0002, and volume contracting on the approach to support. This is the level that held during the December crash — if it breaks, the next major support is nowhere to be found until the 0.07 range.

The bearish bias is confirmed by EMA confluence: EMA 9, 21, and 50 are all stacked in bearish order. But here is the thing — every bounce off this 0.09 support in the past three months has been violent. This is not a level where you want to be short with stops below. You want to be ready for the reclaim.

The Derivatives Data Says Otherwise

While the charts scream bearish, the derivatives market is telling a different story:

• Funding rate at 0.0003 — positive, meaning shorts are paying longs to hold positions
• Open interest at USD 28.5B with a +2.1% 24-hour increase
• Liquidations: USD 67M total over the past 24 hours — USD 45M of that was long positions getting wiped

This is the interesting part. Longs are getting liquidated but OI is still rising. New money is coming in on the long side despite the price weakness. The funding rate being positive despite the selloff suggests smart money is stacking calls and perpetuals at these levels, expecting a reversal.

On-chain data backs this up — open interest surged by +90,110 in the last 12 hours while fear dominates the retail narrative.

My Play

This is a 5/10 on the rug scale — not a guaranteed bounce, but the risk-reward at 0.09 is favorable compared to chasing 0.10.

Position: Spot ARB with a tight stop at 0.085 USD (6% downside max). Target is 0.12 on reclaim of 0.10 — that's 33% upside for 6% risk.

Alternative for degens: Call options 0.12 strike, 1-month expiry. At these levels, theta decay is your friend if we get a bounce. Funding is already positive — you get paid to hold the position.

Why Not Wait for Confirmation

Because by the time RSI crosses 50 and MACD flips green, you are buying 15% higher. The alpha is in entering before the crowd. The 0.09 level has been tested three times in the last 90 days. Fourth time is either the charm or the break — but the derivatives flow suggests smart money is not waiting for confirmation.

Drop your ARB plays below — what are you targeting this week? farm responsibly. NFA.