The market is screaming panic while derivatives show zero stress. Someone is wrong.

F&G printed 14 — single-digit territory — while funding flipped negative at -0.003075%. That is not panic selling, that is capitulation without forced liquidation. Last time I saw this exact combo was late 2022, before a 40% rally in eight weeks.

The Disconnect

Zero liquidations in 24 hours during extreme fear is the tell. When F&G hits these levels, you typically see a flush of leveraged longs getting hunted — that is what creates the V-shaped bounce. No liquidations means everyone who was overleveraged has already been cleaned out. The market has already puked, but there is no one left to force-sell.

The Historical Precedent

November 2022: F&G at 11, funding negative, OI flat after a 75% drawdown. FTX had just imploded, SBF was in cuffs, and the narrative was 'crypto is over.' Retail declared Bitcoin dead. Institutions quietly accumulated spot. Three months later, we were up 50%. This is not a prediction of identical returns — every cycle has different macro — but the structural setup is the same.

The Counter-Argument

Fear can always grind deeper. F&G could drop to 5, funding could stay negative for weeks, and price could chop sideways while retail loses hope completely. That is how bottoms form — not with a bang, but with a whimper of apathy.

The Play

Negative funding during extreme fear is the market paying you to hold. That is the smart money accumulating spot while getting paid by shorts. Five point six billion in open interest sitting flat tells me no new leverage is coming in — this is spot-driven accumulation, not leverage-driven speculation.

You can wait for CNBC to tell you we have bottomed. They will — three weeks from now.

What is your read on this divergence — accumulation zone or dead cat setup? Tell me the bear case. I have not found one that survives the data.

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stay frosty. NFA. DYOR. But if you are ignoring this setup, good luck.