The Structural Read

ETH 4H is in a clear bearish configuration. EMA 9 sits at 1,981 while EMA 21 holds at 2,004 — the 4H EMA structure has rolled over with the 9-period crossing below the 21. MACD printed -10.67 with the histogram still accelerating negative at -0.82. This is not a ambiguous signal — the momentum is pointing down.

Price is currently trapped between 1,981 (EMA 9) as dynamic resistance and 1,935 (first support) as the immediate target. The bias is bearish, and the confluence is clean: EMA trend negative, MACD histogram negative, and volume contracting on the bounce attempts. Every bounce has been met with selling pressure.

The On-Chain Contradiction

Here is where it gets interesting. The 12-hour on-chain data shows a net inflow of USD 757,182 — 123 inflow transactions against 150 outflows. That sounds like distribution, but look closer: the top inflow wallet is Coinbase with USD 767,560 in inbound transfers. These are not small retail transactions — these are institutional-scale movements onto exchanges.

Funding is essentially flat at -0.003%, meaning neither longs nor shorts are aggressively paying a premium to maintain positions. Open interest sits at USD 3.47 billion — substantial but not at extreme levels that precede squeeze events.

When technicals say bearish but on-chain shows accumulation, one of two things happens: either the chart breaks down and the on-chain data was wrong-footed, or the accumulation eventually forces a reclaim of EMA 21. Right now, the chart is in control.

The Setup

• Entry: Short below 1,935 (break and close below first support)
• Stop: 2,032 (above EMA 21 resistance, invalidate bearish structure)
• TP1: 1,900 (previous support cluster, 35 candles of accumulation)
• TP2: 1,750 (major structural support)
• R:R: 1:2.2

What Would Change My Mind

A 4H close above 2,032 with volume would flip the EMA structure and kill the short thesis. Until then, the chart is in charge. Fear & Greed at 9 is noted — but extreme fear without a technical confirmation is just fear.

Where is your invalidation? levels don't lie. NFA.