The Structural Tension

ETH 4H is trapped in a compression phase that is generating contradictory signals. Price is currently trading between USD 1,935 support and USD 2,031 resistance — a tight 4.9% range that has compressed over the last 24 candles. The bias printed by the scanner is bearish, yet the MACD histogram has flipped positive at +3.34, suggesting momentum is shifting even as price remains Range-bound.

The EMA structure tells the bearish story: EMA 9 at USD 1,965.71 sits below EMA 21 at USD 1,983.12, and both are beneath the 50-period average. That is a clean downtrend structure. But here is what interests me — the MACD histogram positive divergence is printing while price sits near support, not resistance. That is the exact setup that precedes a squeeze.

The Confluence Factors

Let me lay out what is happening simultaneously:

• RSI sits at 51.14 — dead neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. This gives room for a directional move in either direction without hitting an extreme first.
• Funding rate is marginally positive at +0.0046%, meaning longs are paying a tiny premium but not aggressively leveraged. No crowded long signal here.
• On-chain shows a net outflow of USD 1.2M over the past 12 hours, with 152 outflow transactions versus 124 inflow transactions. Whales are moving ETH off exchanges — historically a bullish signal for near-term price.
• Open interest remains flat at USD 3.47B with zero change in 24 hours. No new capital entering, no new capital leaving. This is a market waiting for a catalyst.

The Fear & Greed index at 8 (Extreme Fear) provides sentiment context — but it is not the thesis. The thesis is the technical structure: bearish EMA bias, but bullish momentum divergence, neutral RSI, and withdrawing exchange reserves.

The Setup

• Entry: Long above USD 2,031 (daily resistance breakout confirms direction)
• Stop: Below USD 1,935 (support invalidation, structure fails)
• TP1: USD 2,107 (first resistance, tested 43 candles ago)
• TP2: USD 2,149 (second resistance, tested 70 candles ago)
• R:R: 1:2.1

I am not taking this yet. I want to see a 4H close above USD 2,031 with volume confirmation. The doji printed 5 candles ago — that was the indecision candle. Now we need a displacement candle to confirm the direction.

What Would Change My Mind

A 4H close below USD 1,935 with volume invalidates the long thesis and targets USD 1,902 next. Also watching the funding rate — if it flips negative while price dumps through support, the bearish structure wins.

Where is your invalidation? Drop your levels below.