The crypto market just erased USD 2 trillion — a figure that sounds catastrophic until you check what the chart was already pricing in. The headline is dramatic, but the structure has been bearish for weeks. The news didn't break the market; it confirmed what EMA and RSI were already screaming.

The Technical Reality Beneath the Headline

Look at the 4H structure. EMA 9 at USD 66,871 and EMA 21 at USD 67,476 — both sitting below current price. That is a textbook bearish stack. MACD histogram has been negative for 8 consecutive candles, with the latest reading at -318. The bias is bearish, not because of tariffs, but because the trend has been down since the rejection at USD 71,500 eleven days ago.

The news cycle is treating this as a shock — Bitcoin falling below USD 65,000 on tariff uncertainty is the top Reddit story with 438 points. But the technical damage was already done. The 4H RSI at 32.98 is oversold, not extreme. There is room to go lower before any meaningful bounce setup prints.

What the Wipeout Actually Means

The USD 2 trillion figure comes from the post-Trump election rally being fully reversed. That rally was built on institutional optimism — ETF flows, corporate treasury adoption, regulatory clarity bets. The wipeout tells you the market has reset to pre-election levels. Structurally, that means we are testing the October 2024 support zone.

The USD 68,475 resistance level has been tested 4 times in the past 14 candles. Each test failed. That is a floor becoming a ceiling — the classic distribution pattern. Until price reclaims that level with volume, the path of least resistance is down.

The Sentiment Contradiction

Fear & Greed at 5 — Extreme Fear. Down from 10 last week and 25 last month. The crowd is scared, but not yet capitulated. Historical data shows Extreme Fear readings often print before the final flush, not the bottom. The market needs to scare out the remaining bulls before a sustainable bounce forms.

• Price: Testing USD 64,951 (24h low: USD 63,200)
• Key resistance: USD 68,475 (4 touches, invalidation for bullish thesis)
• RSI 4H: 32.98 (oversold but not extreme)
• MACD: Bearish for 8 consecutive candles
• Sentiment: Extreme Fear (5) — down from 10 last week

The Bottom Line

The chart was bearish before the headline. The headline is the excuse, not the cause. Until BTC reclaims USD 68,475 on the 4H with volume, the structural bias remains down. The USD 2 trillion wipeout is newsworthy, but it is not news to the chart.

If you are looking for a bounce, wait for RSI to print below 25 or for a 4H close above USD 68,500. Until then, the trend is your friend — and the trend is bearish.

Where is your invalidation? levels don't lie. NFA.